EYE ON POLITICS:
A busy time on the global horizon
by Kerry Turner
The political developments of the last few weeks between Canada and the United States continue to underscore a week of evolving priorities – from defense realignment and Arctic security to leadership shifts and transnational diplomacy. Re-shaping and re-defining the Canada–U.S. political landscape as we head into the final weeks of summer remains a focal point of international relations.
At home in Canada, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre returned to the House of Commons by winning the Battle River–Crowfoot by-election on August 18. By-elections occur when a sitting MP vacates their seat, and the government or opposition parties can run candidates to fill those positions. Poilievre secured 80.4% of the vote – slightly less than his predecessor’s margin but enough to restore his seat as Leader of the Opposition and earn himself a trip back to the capital. His nearest rival was an independent candidate, Bonnie Critchley, who won 9.9 per cent with just over 5,000 votes.
The Calgary-raised 46-year-old said he’s “had a hell of a lot of fun” and “this fall, as Parliament returns, we will not only oppose out-of-control Liberal inflation, crime, immigration, cost-of-living and housing crises, but we will propose real solutions for safe streets, secure borders, a stronger and sovereign country with bigger take-home pay for our people,” he said. “We will put Canada first, and we will do so in a way that will make our country self-reliant and make our people capable of earning paycheques that buy affordable food and homes in safe neighbourhoods.”
Poilievre also highlighted his opposition to the Liberals' contentious electric vehicle mandate, which will punish auto makers for selling more than a certain amount of gas vehicles. Parliament is set to return to work on September 15 following the summer recess, which Poilievre says Prime Minister Mark Carney should have done sooner to deal with the trade war started by US President Donald Trump. Carney, meanwhile, congratulated Poilievre on his victory in a social media post this morning, saying he had been given "the honour of representing the people of Battle River—Crowfoot in Parliament”. Poilievre’s return has consolidated opposition strength in Ottawa just as Canada recalibrates its international posture.
Elsewhere, the handling of the Air Canada strike by Carney’s internal Ministers was largely seen as a failure of his party to handle the crisis, which left many Canadians stranded and out of pocket for flights cancelled at the eleventh hour.
Meanwhile, on an international stage, the sovereignty and security of the Canadian arctic and beyond its borders remains a topic of interest around the world. While Canada and the U.S. are active participants in the Arctic Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum for promoting cooperation in the Arctic, Canada is pivoting its Arctic defense approach – moving away from depending solely on the U.S. and toward deeper alignment with Nordic NATO partners like Sweden and Finland. Carney dispatched ministers to both countries to explore defense collaborations, including reconsidering Canada’s planned F‑35 fighter jets in favor of Sweden’s Saab Gripen. New business ventures are also underway, such as a partnership between Roshel (Canadian armored vehicles) and Sweden’s Swebor, plus joint shipbuilding plans for Arctic icebreakers with Finland. This marks Canada’s growing commitment to multilateral Arctic security amid Russian threats and trade tensions with the United States. Canada’s Arctic strategy shift signals in a move toward greater sovereignty and multilateral defense coordination – diminishing reliance on the U.S. in a geopolitically sensitive region. US President Donald Trump and Russian oligarch Vladimir Putin met for what was marketed as a peace talk in the Alaskan state the week of August 18th. The proximity to Canada was not lost on onlookers, who when Putin declared the US a “neighbour” left Canadians wondering where they stood in both diplomacy and geography.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said Monday the federal government is leaving “no stone unturned” to defend Canada’s North as changes in the global order in recent years are having direct implications for Canada’s Arctic sovereignty. Anand was in Helsinki to meet with her counterparts from Nordic countries to discuss Arctic security, which she said has become a more critical issue since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Before that, Anand said NATO countries typically focused on shoring up the security along the eastern flank in Europe. “NATO’s gaze also has to shift westward and north because of the changing geopolitical landscape, especially following February 24, 2022,” she said in a call back from Finland with reporters. “We are seeing increased activity, for example, in the Northwest Passage, we are seeing Russian infrastructure moved further and further north on the other side of the Arctic Circle. So our priority, in terms of Canada’s Arctic foreign policy, is to ensure that we leave no stone unturned, to protect and defend Canada’s sovereignty, especially in the Arctic.”
Meanwhile, Trump has intensified political moves south of the Canadian border: hosting Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House following attempted peace talks with Putin, federalizing D.C.’s police, deploying National Guard units, and issuing a controversial executive order to ban mail-in voting based on unsubstantiated fraud claims.
The elaborations of Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed successes also continued this week, as the President has asserted that he has brought an end to six separate wars within just six months of his presidency. The claim, repeated across speeches, social media posts, and interviews is aimed at Trump positioning himself as a global mediator. Trump wrote on his Truth Social account ahead of the meeting with Ukraine and other world leaders in Washington: “I’ve settled 6 Wars in 6 months, one of them a possible Nuclear disaster… Despite all of my lightweight and very jealous critics, I’ll get it done – I always do!!!” While the conflicts he is referring to remain elusive, the one taking centre stage is the Ukrainian-Russian war, which has been going on since 2022 when Russia launched an unprovoked attack on Ukrainians.
At the US-Russian Summit, the two leaders hammered out the beginnings of a Ukraine peace deal, with Putin securing concessions on a 'land swap' that would see vast swathes of Ukraine become Russian. The summit ended early, and the lunch scheduled to take place between Putin and Trump at the US military base was cancelled. At the press conference following the closed door meeting, the leaders did not take a single question from the room filled with the world's journalists.
Trump then hosted Ukrainian President Zelensky who was backed by the UK's Keir Starmer, France's Emmanuel Macron, Germany's Friedrich Merz and Italy's Giorgia Meloni, who all joined him in Washington with the continued goal to discuss potential peace mechanisms for Ukraine. Trump floated "NATO-style" security guarantees for Ukraine, all while continuing to withhold full NATO membership, and signaled hope for a Zelensky–Putin summit within two weeks. International leaders stressed no territorial concessions would be made at this time and called for robust security commitments in the war-torn Ukraine.
Carney praised the “openness” from the U.S. to providing security guarantees to Ukraine. “The leadership of President Trump and the United States is creating the opportunity to end Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. Robust and credible security guarantees are essential to any just and lasting peace,” Carney wrote in a statement. “I welcome the openness of the United States to providing security guarantees as part of the Coalition of the Willing’s efforts.”
Trump’s domestic actions and renewed interest and involvement in Ukraine policy may alter the dynamics of Canada–U.S. collaboration and pressure points in North American politics. The role Trump attempts to play as an international broker of peace stands in contrast to his actions and diplomacy to date, but the world will continue to watch anxiously as the US attempts to realign its position as a superpower on the international stage.