EYE ON POLITICS:An election of many surprises

by Kerry Turner

       Canada’s historic election has come to a close, with upsets, surprises and perhaps what a mere few months ago would have seemed near impossible – a Liberal Party victory. 
       The Liberal Party secured a minority government, capturing 169 seats in the House of Commons, and Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet in the coming days. Carney also easily won his seat in his Nepean riding, capturing more than 60 percent of the popular vote. Carney’s victory is historic in the sense that it will be the first time since 1887 that Canada’s Prime Minister will have a seat in an Ottawa riding – the last was John A. MacDonald. During a speech in Ottawa Tuesday, Carney focused on his mission to unite Canadians, emphasizing his desire to be Prime Minister for every citizen. “I chose to enter politics because I felt we needed big changes in this country, but big changes guided by strong values… And those include three values that I want to highlight this evening: humility, it’s Canada after all; ambition, it’s Canada after all; and unity.”    
       Locally, Eric Duncan was voted in for his third consecutive election win and will return to Parliament Hill as Conservative MP for Cornwall and SDG. “It’s wonderful to see the results come in locally, a little disappointing nationally,” said Duncan, as he addressed supporters. “I owe a big thank you to everybody in this room… the big blue machine is alive and well.” Duncan shied away from specifics regarding the future of the Conservative Party, saying “It’s still too early to tell what we’ll take from this,” said Duncan, “I think the campaign that [Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre] ran was a solid one. Obviously, it didn’t come across in the end the way that we wanted it to.” 
       Duncan’s Liberal opponent, Sarah Good, claimed 26,054 or 39.6 percent of the overall vote, with a 67.93 per cent voter turnout for the riding. This is the most votes the Liberal Party of Canada has seen federally since the late former MP Bob Kilger held his seat in the 1993 election. 
       Nationally, the Conservative Party will need to regroup in the wake of Poilievre’s failed bid for Prime Minister. Poilievre also faces the reality of having lost his long-held seat in the Carleton riding of Ottawa, which he first won almost twenty years ago. 
       All is not bleak for the Party, however, as the Conservatives managed to grow their seats from 120 to 144. In total, the Conservatives won just over 41% of the votes, the highest number recorded for the party since 1988. While many critics have credited Carney’s victory to economic threats and threats against Canadian sovereignty at the hands of American President Donald Trump, political strategist and campaign manager to Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Kory Teneycke believes Poilievre’s party's critical error came long before Donald Trump moved into the White House. “The biggest strategic error that the Conservatives had going into this election was pounding (Former Prime Minister) Justin Trudeau and the Liberals with tens of millions of dollars of advertising,” Teneycke cited during Monday’s election coverage. “Years of attacks had Trudeau polling below 20 per cent by the time he resigned in January, leaving Poilievre without a favoured political punching bag” said Teneycke. Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a polling firm, weighed in on the Liberal win, citing its contingency on three key factors. "It was the 'anybody-but-Conservative' factor, it was the Trump tariff factor, and then it was the Trudeau departure... which enabled a lot of left-of-center voters and traditional Liberal voters to come back to the party," Kurl said, referring to the resignation of Trudeau.
       The future of the NDP is in shambles as leader Jagmeet Singh and his party suffered devastating losses across the country. Singh lost his seat in Burnaby South, British Columbia and the New Democrats only received 6.3 percent of the vote, which equated to a loss of 17 seats. The NDP will lose official party status, falling short of the 12 seat minimum requirement. An emotional Singh has stepped down as leader, telling press "It's been the honour of my life to represent the people of Burnaby Central," he said. "Tonight they chose a new member of Parliament and I wish them well." The NDP lost all five of their seats in Ontario, as well. 
       In messaging that cast a dark cloud over the NDP campaign early on, former NDP leader Thomas Mulclair penned a rather daunting essay, stating to the detriment of the party that "If you can't seriously say you're going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it," Mulcair wrote. The NDP seemingly never recovered.
       From his office in the White House, it is hard not to attempt a guess at what the American President's next move might be. In a rather uncharacteristic welcome following the Canadian federal election results, Trump indicated that Carney will meet with the White House within the next week or so and that “I think we’re going to have a great relationship” Trump said. “He (Carney) called me up yesterday and said ‘Let’s make a deal.’” The President also stated that it was the “one that hated Trump, I think the least, that won. I actually think the Conservative hated me much more than the so-called Liberal.” The future meetings of the feuding leaders will be sure to heavily focus on the economic tensions as Carney gets in line to renegotiate trade agreements with our southern neighbour and ally. In his victory speech, Carney stated "our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over," Carney said “The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that, while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for our country for decades, is over…these are tragedies, but it's also our new reality."
       Canadian voter turnout based on data collected through Elections Canada's preliminary estimates indicate that 19,583,016 Canadians cast a ballot. This translates into a voter turnout rate of about 68.65%. These figures demonstrate the highest voter turnout since 1993; nearly thirty years ago. Canadians have had their say, even if it remains a polarizing one.
       The House is expected to resume May 26th, and now that the election is behind us, Canadians wait anxiously to see what comes next, with many hoping the first step is to begin the daunting task of removing interprovincial trade barriers to help ease the pain of tariffs and lack of affordability. Carney has his work cut out for him.